DYNAMICS AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FOREST AREA BASED ON THE DYNAMICS OF THE HUMAN POPULATION: Case study of the Haute Matsiatra region

MANAGEMENT

Forest degradation in interaction with the ever-increasing world population is part of the various major environmental problems. Therefore, this publication consists of the presentation of a new method using a Markovian approach called zone model. The latter models the dynamics and management of the forest surface in interaction with the dynamics of the human population. For the case of the Haute Matsiatra region, the results of calculations show that the constant growth in the size of the human population amplifies the degradation of the forest surface. On the other hand, with the confidence intervals of the zone model, it is possible to gradually restore the destroyed parts. As the case of the Haute Matsiatra region, by preserving 0.05ha per inhabitant as the surface of housing and infrastructure and 503905ha that of cultivable areas, according to calculations, from 2022, it is necessary to catch up at least 1104.178ha of reforestation per year, to conserve the forest cover of 55126.554ha and to gradually restore the parts destroyed by the fires and by the operations until 2050.

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