Implications of Temporal Trends in Climate and Land Cover on Rangeland Sustainability in Benane ward, Lagdera Sub-County, Kenya

Dryland Environment

Rangelands in Ladgera are increasingly threatened by climate variability, leading to altered precipitation patterns, more frequent extreme weather events and shifts in vegetation dynamics, resulting in reduced forage availability, soil degradation, and diminished water resources, thereby jeopardizing sustainability and the well-being of dependent communities. This study aimed at evaluating the extent to which the temporal rainfall and temperature trends affect rangeland sustainability in Benane Ward, Lagdera Sub-County, Kenya. The study adopted mixed research design. Both quantitative and qualitative data collection techniques were used. The target population was 886 respondents which consisted households’ representatives and key informants. Cluster sampling technique was adopted. A sample size of 286 was obtained from the target population consisting of 274 household representatives and 12 key informants. Primary data was collected through structured questionnaire and interview guide and data for vegetation cover and land use was collected using ARCGIS pro software while secondary data was obtained from the Kenya Meteorological Department. Moreover, time series for the analysis of rainfall and temperature was conducted. Quantitative data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistical methods, while qualitative data underwent thematic content analysis to identify key patterns and insights. Data was then presented using tables and figures. The key findings revealed that Benane Ward experienced severe climatic deterioration between 2000 and 2024, characterized by declining rainfall reliability, rising temperatures, compressed rainy seasons and increasing frequency of prolonged dry spells (grand mean = 4.68; 93.7% agreement). Climate variability had a statistically dominant effect on rangeland sustainability (r = 0.900, p < 0.01), manifesting through significant declines in pasture availability, vegetation cover, water sources, and livestock productivity. Spatially, vegetated land cover declined from 66% in 2000 to approximately 9% by 2024, while degraded land expanded from 21% to 83% over the same period. The study concluded that climate variability was the dominant driver of rangeland degradation in Benane Ward and that community adaptive capacity was being progressively overwhelmed by intensifying climate stress and weak governance structures. The study recommended that the Government of Kenya and Garissa County urgently implement the Community Land Act (2016) to secure communal land tenure, establish multi-stakeholder rangeland governance platforms, scale up water harvesting infrastructure, reorient drought programming toward anticipatory and trigger-based support and integrate indigenous pastoral knowledge systems such as the Dedha grazing governance framework into formal rangeland management policy.

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