Physics Based Climate Models for Long-Term Viability of Renewable Energy Systems

PHYSICS

Climate variability and extreme weather events increasingly limit the long-term sustainability of renewable energy systems as well as structural uncertainty concerning future climate forecasts. Conventional methods of energy planning usually assume statistical extrapolation and short-term forecasting, which are unsuitable to explain the non-linear interactions between climate and the performance of renewable energy. In this work, it is suggested to develop an approach to climate modeling based on physics in order to evaluate both the long-term sustainability and operational resilience of renewable energy systems under the changing climate conditions. The study combines physically compatible climate factors with the primary qualitative data collected from stakeholders of the energy system, which are quantified and analysed with the help of statistical software. Combining climate-responsive physical variables, i.e., the fluctuation of solar irradiance, changes in the wind regime, and the loss of efficiency based on temperature, with system-level indicators of decision support, the study offers a sustainable assessment of the feasibility of renewable energy generation in long-term time scale. The interpretation and cause-and-effect consistency in the methodology discourage the growth of uncertainty, in contrast to the solely data-driven models. The findings show that physics-based climate models can greatly improve the accuracy of long-term renewable energy evaluation due to the threshold impact, regime switching, and performance decline caused by climate conditions. The results are applicable to climate-resilient energy planning as the results provide a robust analytical framework that facilitates strategically sound choices of investments, infrastructure development, and policy changes. This study makes progress in the study of climate science and renewable energy modeling, which fills one glaring gap in the study of energy sustainability in the long term. Keywords: Physics-based climate modeling; Renewable energy viability; Climate-induced performance risk; Long-term energy sustainability; Climate-energy system coupling.

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