PREDICTABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL USING EIGENVALUES OF METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES

Climatology

Using eigenvalue analysis, this study examines cyclogenesis in the cyclone-prone Mozambique Channel. When it comes to meteorological variables like humidity, vorticity, and mean sea level pressure (MSLP), this technique aids in identifying the prominent fluctuation modes. Eigenvalues facilitate the understanding of pre-cyclonic dynamics by indicating the proportion of variance explained by each mode. According to the analysis, there is a dominant tendency in the variability, with the first eigenvalue explaining most of the variance and consistently being bigger than 1. But the second eigenvalue, which can occasionally be greater than 1, emphasizes the significance of a bidimensional component in particular circumstances. This implies that cyclone formation may be influenced by an additional major component in addition to the basic structure. As a result, the study highlights how crucial it is to take into account the second eigenvalue in addition to the first in order to fully comprehend the intricate interactions that lead to cyclogenesis.

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