ANALYTICAL PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT OF ICTS (2000-2021): EGYPT CASE STUDY

Economics and ICTs

Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model has been employed to analyze and investigate the relationship between the dependent variable (GDP per capita) and the independent variables (mobile and fixed broadband subscriptions, government expenditure on ICTs, mobile broadband capable device penetration, ICTs regulatory tracker, population, ICT capital, and labor) and to develop a prediction model to measure the economic impact of ICTs in Egypt from 2000 to 2021. The study adopted Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) t-statistic and cointegration Johansen's maximum eigenvalue tests to check for presence of unit roots in the dataset variables. The eestimation results show that a 10-percentage increase in the subscriptions of fixed broadband and mobile broadband and capital ICTs investment, GDP per capita increase by 0.3268%, 0.064%, and 0.3535%, respectively in Egypt. The empirical results of the cointegrated dataset using STATA software resulted in a high R-squared value indicating that the model explains a significant amount of the variability in GDP per capita. In addition, the results showed that the main OLS model is significant, valid and reliable and that the data tools used for the study are 84.67% reliable and can be used over time.

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