OPEN DEFECATION IN NAMIBIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Economics

In this study, which is the first of its kind in Namibia, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was applied in examining open defecation. The data was collected from the online World Bank data base and covers the period 2000 – 2017. The out-of-sample forecasts cover the period 2018 – 2022. The diagnostics tests employed in this study show that the open defection series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The study finally presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) as the optimal model in forecasting the number of people practicing open defecation in Namibia. The model, through the residual ADF tests, and the inverse roots of the AR/MA polynomials; has been shown to be very stable and suitable for forecasting and control of open defecation in Namibia. The results of the study indicate that by 2022 the number of open defecators will be approximately 47% of the total population. Indeed, open defecation is persistent in Namibia, especially in rural areas. The study offers a three-fold policy recommendation for consideration by the government of Namibia.

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