OPEN DEFECATION IN MOZAMBIQUE: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Economics

Based on annual time series data on the number of open defecators in Mozambique from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2022. The study uses the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODZ series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model as the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further uncover that the presented model is very stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of open defecators in Mozambique is likely to decline over the period 2018 – 2022, from 25.14% to 17.61% of the total population. This implies that, open defecation will remain a public health issue in Mozambique, even though it is quite possible for the country to significantly reduce open defecation by 2025. However, it is possible to completely end open defecation in Mozambique, especially if the government remains committed to do so. The study suggested a basic three-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration.

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