OPEN DEFECATION IN MADAGASCAR: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Economics

In this research article, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was applied in analyzing open defecation in Madagascar. The data was gathered from the online World Bank data base and covers the period 2000 – 2017. The out-of-sample forecasts cover the period 2018 – 2022. The diagnostics tests employed in this study indicate that the open defection series is an I (1) variable. The study finally presents the ARIMA (2, 1, 0) as the best model in forecasting the number of people practicing open defecation in Madagascar. The model, through the residual ADF tests, the Normality Test as well as the inverse roots of the AR/MA polynomials; has been shown to be stable and suitable for forecasting and control of open defecation in Madagascar. The results of the study are surprising in the sense that open defecation has been shown to be increasing in the out-of-sample period. This means that, if nothing is done on the public policy front, by 2022, almost 47% of the total population in Madagascar [that is, at least 9 million people, especially those in rural areas] will be practicing open defecation. This is a serious warning signal of the likelihood of a more dangerous health threat due to open defecation. The study offers the following recommendations: [i] the government of Madagascar should make toilets a status symbol; [ii] the government of Madagascar should create more demand for sanitation; [iii] there is need for the government of Madagascar to encourage a habit of systematic hand-washing, not defecating in the open, as well as keeping toilets fly-proof. This will easily translate into an open-defecation-free Madagascar; [iv] the Community Led Total Sanitation (CLTS) program in Madagascar should continue indefinitely.

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