OPEN DEFECATION IN CAMBODIA: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Economics

In this research paper, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was applied in analyzing open defecation in Cambodia. The data was collected from the online World Bank data base and covers the period 2000 – 2017. The out-of-sample forecasts cover the period 2018 – 2022. The diagnostics tests employed in this study show that the open defection series is an I (1) variable. The study finally presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) as the optimal model in forecasting the number of people practicing open defecation in Cambodia. The model, through the residual ADF tests, and the inverse roots of the AR/MA polynomials; has been shown to be stable and suitable for forecasting and control of open defecation in Cambodia. The results of the study indicate that by 2022 the number of open defecators will be as low as 16% of the total population. The study offers a three-fold policy recommendation for consideration by the government of Cambodia.

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