Gomti River : Hydrological Modelling In Lucknow City By WEAP Module For Predicting The Climate Variations For Future Year 2030

Environmental Engineering

Despite several infrastructure, awareness-raising, and policy efforts, water pollution continues to be a difficult problem for the sustainable development of the Gomti River. The research evaluates the viability of the Gomti River in Lucknow region for future climate variations under various cases by performing hydrological simulation under . Analysis of the Gomti River pollution case study a scenario based on the two for present-day and future wastewater production and treatment significant markers of aquatic health. In order to mimic the present (year 2022) and future (year 2030), the planning (WEAP) model river water quality between 2022 and 2030. The outcomes revealed that the Climate change and population growth will lead to water quality degrading by a further 71.2% and 11.4% respectively on a median basis in 2030, compared to today. However, if the study area were to be collected by 100% sewerage collection rate and treated at increased WWTP capacities of 900 MLD, the results for simulated water quality would be better. Observations from IMD station for 2021 showed 927 mm of precipitation. For 2030, MRIC GCM predicted 966.7 mm and 918.8 mm of annual precipitation using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. In contrast, the same projected precipitation value by MIROC GCM with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 was 885.3 mm and 903.1 mm, respectively. This indicates that the annual precipitation within the simulation from GCM output is similar to that observed currently. Also the effect percentage global climate change on BOD and ECOLI on simulated water quality was found 13% and 11% respectively. Thus global climate change isn't much concerning comparing to population change. Based on UNDESA projected rates, the ratio method was used to calculate the population distribution and future trend at the considered demand sites, based on the populations being considered for year 2021 and 2030, these numbers are 5778637 and 7038464 respectively and therefore the percentage contribution of population change on simulated water quality was found 87% and 89% for BOD and ECOLI respectively which is concerning.

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