DIRECTION OF TRADE AND CHANGING PATTERN OF EXPORTS OF CEREALS FROM INDIA

Agricultural Sciences

India is not only the largest producer of cereals as well as largest exporter of cereal products in the world. India is the world's second largest producer of Rice, Wheat and other cereals. The huge demand for cereals in the global market is creating an excellent environment for the export of Indian cereal products. Rice (including Basmati and Non-Basmati) occupy the major share of 95.70 % in India's total cereals export. Whereas, other cereals including wheat represent only 4.3 % share in total cereals exported from India. The direction of trade of Cereals for the period from 2009 to 2018 was determined using Markov chain analysis. Projections are made from 2019 to 2023. Nepal retained 70.92 per cent of its original share followed by Others (69.02%), Indonesia (61.53%) and Saudi Arabia (47.35%). For export of cereals from India the most reliable markets are Nepal, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia and least reliable markets are Bangladesh, Iran, Senegal, UAE and Benin. The results suggest that the category others import major quantity of Cereals from India followed by Nepal. The quantity imported by others increased from 56.54 to 59 lakh tonnes from the year 2019 to 2023. Whereas quantity imported by Nepal decreased from 12.91 to12.62 lakh tonnes over the forecasted period. There is need for policies to maintain export share of Cereals to most stable markets. Efforts should be taken to promote cereals export from India to explore and exploit potential of Other markets. There is need to promote export of cereals to new emerging markets to avoid overdependency on few countries.

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